Can Dementia be predicted?

BUFFALO, N.Y. (WIVB) - Millions of Americans suffer from some form of Dementia, the most common is Alzheimer's Disease.

If we knew someone was going to become demented, maybe we could do something about it.

David Ginenthal said, "I don't remember dates. I have to write things down."

Ginenthal is 80-years-old, and leads an active life. Will he become demented?

A report published online in the journal "Neurology" contains a grading system for predicting the likelihood of Dementia in older people.

They studied more than three thousand people age 65 or older, without signs of dementia and followed them for six years.

Risk factors that they associated with the development of Dementia included older age; poor scores on cognitive function tests; being underweight; previous coronary bypass surgery; thickening of the carotid arteries that supply the brain; evidence of shrinkage on brain scans; and having genes associated with Alzheimer's Disease.

They calculated a risk score for each person.

Those who had high scores had a 56 percent chance of becoming demented. Those with moderate risk scores had a 23 percent chance, and those with low scores had only a four percent chance.

So the grading system seems to work, but how would we use the information?

UCSF Lead Study Author Doctor Deborah Barnes said, "I think some people are concerned, and this is a way that they could go in and either potentially be reassured, or if they are high risk, then they could possibly start planning for the future."

Knowing your risk will affect your life, but another look at the results shows that 46 percent of those at high risk, and 77 percent of those at moderate risk did not become demented.

What is the best advice?

What's good for your heart is good for your brain.

News 4's Don Postles asked if we better off not knowing the risk.

Dr. Peter Ostrow said, "Maybe so. If I tell you that you have a moderate or high risk of becoming demented, then, from that time on, you may be so anxious that whenever you misplace your car keys or forget something, you think 'oh no, it's beginning.' That's not worth it. We don't have a good treatment yet for Dementia, but there are things we know can decrease the risk - healthy diet, exercise, really, the things that are good for the heart are good for the brain."