What WNY can expect this winter

BUFFALO, N.Y. (WIVB) - Will we have another mild winter or should we be getting ready for the worst?

It would be nice if we could rely on folklore like the Woolly Bear caterpillar or silliness like the Farmers Almanac, but nature is infinitely more complicated than that. In fact, uncertainty in preparing winter outlooks has increased in recent decades due to our changing climate.

Judah Cohen, Director of Seasonal Forecasting for Atmospheric and Environmental Research, said, "The polar Arctic's been perturbed. Instead of flowing quickly from West to East, it's taken on this more South configuration and it's bringing frequent cold air outbreaks into the U.S., into the Eastern U.S."

Thinning Arctic ice, autumn snow in far off Siberia, and the uneven cycles of El Nino and La Nina all influence winter weather around the Northern hemisphere and in western New York.

There is even evidence that if it snows a lot in Siberia in October, a warmer Actic can produce a change in the jet stream, which brought "Snowmaggedon" in 2009-2010 to Baltimore, Washington and Philadelphia.

MORE | You can download our free WIVB app here for your smartphone and keep up-to-date on the latest weather events

News 4 Chief Meteorologist Don Paul said, "We think that shifting pattern over the Indian Ocean behaved in a way last winter that kept our polar jet too far North to allow cold air into most of the U.S. But there are two other important shifting patterns over the North Atlantic, which also have a huge effect on what the jet stream will do, the North Atlantic oscillation and the Arctic oscillation. The rub is, meteorologists can't really predict what the patterns over the Indian Ocean or over the North Atlantic will do more than two weeks in advance. That means seeing deep into the winter has gotten even hazier than it already was. And that's saying something!"

Last year was very mild. Rich Grabenstatter, president of Grabber & Sons Landscaping, said, "This is the most mild winter that I remember in 30 years of snow plowing. I never remember not plowing up until the end of December."

But News 4 Meteorologist Amelia Segal said, "What Don, myself and the other 4 Warn Weather meteorologists agree on is that this winter won't be as mild as last. You can probably expect more changes this winter than last."

MORE | You can sign up for text message alerts on weather events

Don Paul added, "While trying to predict a trend for the whole winter seems out of reach right now, there are many things we can predict in plenty time for you to make plans."

"Every day you see the maps and 4 Warn radar in our weathercast, but what kinds of tools do we have to make a forecast for several days ahead? We have high resolution computer models, which run in-house at least four times per day, three different models. And each of them offers information on how much rain or snow will fall, and even how strong the wind may gust in a storm. These models also time the intensity of rain or snow and place it locally so you can see on the map where the heaviest snow is expected and when," Segal noted.

The data that goes into these models can come from nearby, such as the National Weather Service weather balloons, or from the supercomputers in Washington and Europe.

Don Paul concluded, "Just as weather is a 24/7 business for us, we know you want to be able to get an accurate forecast whenever and wherever you are, and that's easy thanks to WIVB.com and the WIVB app. Western New York is a fantastic place to enjoy winter - the slopes, the rinks, or just taking in the landscape. So take us with you. We hope you'll use our forecasts to plan all your activities, especially when your safety depends on it."