Third-place Bills still betting favorites for AFC East, Super Bowl

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) in the first half of an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2022, in Orchard Park, N.Y.…

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) in the first half of an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2022, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Joshua Bessex)

by: Nick Veronica

Posted: Nov 16, 2022 / 02:09 PM EST

Updated: Nov 16, 2022 / 02:15 PM EST

BUFFALO, N.Y. (WIVB) – The Buffalo Bills fell to third place in the AFC East after Sunday’s gut-wrenching loss to the Vikings.

The team’s consecutive losses have sent a scare through portions of Bills Mafia and prompted hot-takesters to drop the Bills in their power rankings. ESPN spent time this week discussing if Josh Allen’s “trend of critical turnovers” could sink the Bills’ Super Bowl aspirations, and a group of moms even gathered online signatures to tell Josh Allen they’re still proud of him, for some reason.

But the message put forth by sports betting companies this week tells a different story. Despite the Bills currently sitting sixth in the AFC, sportsbooks remain confident they are the best team in football.

Even at 6-3, the Bills remain the betting favorite to win both the AFC East and the Super Bowl.

FanDuel, DraftKings and the Seneca Niagara casinos all still give the Bills the best odds at winning the Super Bowl. The Bills are +375 at Seneca Niagara, +380 on FanDuel, and +400 at DraftKings. All three books list the Chiefs with the second-best odds and the Eagles third. (+375 means a $100 bet would win $375.)

In terms of the division, all three books favor the Bills to surpass the Dolphins, even though Miami (7-3) won the first head-to-head matchup. The Bills are -180 to win the AFC East on FanDuel, -185 on DraftKings and -190 at Seneca Niagara (-180 means a $180 bet wins $100). The Dolphins have the second-best odds.

The Bills offense remains among the league’s best, ranking first in yards per game and yards per play while ranking second in scoring. The defense is eighth in yards allowed per game and per play and second in scoring.

Analytics website Football Outsiders wrote this week that the Bills actually returned to No. 1 in their DVOA metric following the Vikings game. DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, scores every play against a league baseline based from the same situation to determine value over average.

In short: No need to freak out over two straight losses – at least not yet. There are certainly things to improve, but the Bills are still the NFL’s team to beat. Sportsbooks trust them to right the ship.

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Nick Veronica is a Buffalo native who joined the News 4 team as a Digital Executive Producer in 2021. He previously worked at NBC Sports and The Buffalo News. You can follow Nick on Facebook and Twitter and find more of his work here.