BUFFALO, N.Y. (WIVB) — How likely are we to see snow on Christmas?

In western New York, the simple answer is: More likely than unlikely.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has provided a map showing how likely it is for various parts of the region to have at least an inch of snow on December 25.

Western New York is varied, depending on a number of factors, like elevation and geographic location. Chances may be nearly 30 percent different from one area to another.

If you live in northern counties like Niagara, Erie or Genesee, the possibility of an inch of snow equates to a coin flip. For instance, here is the likeliness of a white Christmas in different parts of those areas, based on data collected between 1981 and 2010:

  • Buffalo: 55 percent
  • Lockport: 54/55 percent
  • Niagara Falls: 47 percent
  • North Tonawanda: 54 percent
  • Batavia: 50 percent

But as you begin to enter the valleys in places like Sinclairville and Arcade, the chance of snow becomes much higher.

  • Sinclairville, Sherman: 74 percent
  • Westfield: 62 percent
  • Little Valley: 75 percent
  • Colden, Warsaw: 75 percent
  • Franklinville: 70 percent

In southeastern areas, like Allegany County, the likeliness of snow averages somewhere in the middle of those previous regional examples.

  • Rushford: 63 percent
  • Friendship: 64 percent
  • Angelica: 59 percent
  • Wellsville: 57 percent
  • Whitesville: 56 percent

If you’d like to take a look at the map, and see how likely it is for other parts of the country to get snow on Christmas, click/tap here.