A poll released by Emerson College Polling has Fetterman leading Republican Mehmet Oz 48% to 44% with 5% undecided and 3% supporting another candidate.
Nearly 56% of voters said they expect Fetterman to defeat Oz in a race that could tip the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.
The poll of 1,034 very likely Pennsylvania voters showed strong support for Fetterman in urban areas while rural voters support Oz.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling noted, “Three out of four urban voters support Fetterman whereas 59% of rural voters support Oz. Suburban voters are the battleground for this election, they are split 47% support Fetterman and 47% support Oz.”
Fetterman’s “very favorable” rating among voters was nearly twice as high as Oz’s at 33.8% to 17.6%, while Oz’s very unfavorable rating was about seven points higher at 44.5% to Fetterman’s 37.5%.
Sixty-eight percent of voters said the stroke Fetterman suffered in May made no difference in their likeliness to support him in the election, while 51.3% of voters said Oz’s longtime New Jersey residency makes it less likely they’ll support him.
Twenty-two percent of voters said Fetterman’s stroke made it less likely they’ll support him and 39.9% said Oz’s residency made no difference in their vote.
An overwhelming number of voters (44.5%) cited the economy (jobs/inflation/taxes) as their biggest priority. Abortion access was the second highest issue at 14.3%, followed by crime and healthcare.
President Biden holds a 39% approval in the Keystone state, while 57% disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president.
The Emerson College Polling survey of Pennsylvania voters was conducted August 22-23, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely general election voters, n=1,034, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, party affiliation and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.