BUFFALO, N.Y. (WIVB) — The turnout in this year’s midterm elections is going to play a big factor in who wins what, UB political science professor Shawn Donahue told us Tuesday morning.

Noting that there are more Democrats living in New York than Republicans, Donahue says the Governor’s race could depend on how many of the former turn up at the polls.

During a conversation on Wake Up, Donahue said it’s important to watch major population centers like Buffalo and New York City for an idea on turnout, but also places like Tompkins County, where many college-aged voters can be found, in order to get an idea of how many young people are voting.

“Democrats face a really tough challenge in keeping the House,” Donahue said. “They only have a five-seat majority. In a midterm election, the president’s party usually loses a lot more seats than that.”

We’ll hear from Donahue again later on Tuesday as our election coverage continues. Watch the full Wake Up! interview in the video above.

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